Nissan, Honda Better Positioned Than Toyota After Japan Quake

Moody’s says that this month’s triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis in Japan will not result in wholesale rating changes for Japanese automakers, but its aftermath will weaken the issuers’ operations and financial performance at least through the first half of fiscal-year 2011, ending next March.

Tadashi Usui, the lead author of the report and a Moody’s vice president in Tokyo, says, “To a large extent, the financial health of our rated Japanese automakers before the disaster determines their vulnerability: Toyota (TM) and Yamaha were less well positioned in their ratings and thus are more vulnerable, Nissan (NSANY.PK) and Honda (HMC) are better positioned, and Isuzu is in the middle of the pack.”

Usui adds, “For example, Toyota had been trying to recover after widespread product recalls in 2010; whereas, Nissan’s performance had been improving and was on review for possible upgrade.”

Usui says, “None of these companies have assembly plants that experienced lasting direct damage from the earthquake or tsunami.” He adds, “However, the indirect effects of power shortages and rolling-black outs, disruptions to supply chains, and staffing issues represent a more serious problem.”

A contributor to the report, Michael Mulvaney, a managing director for Moody’s in New York, adds adds, “Problems at geographically dispersed second- and third-tier suppliers may be severe, and for critical parts, the added costs of finding alternative sources of supply could shave 1% to 2% from automakers’ margins.”

Mulvaney says, “We expect Japanese automakers’ full-year revenues for the coming fiscal year to at best show low single-digit growth as overseas markets help to offset weakness in the domestic Japanese market in the first half of the year.”

In a separate report Moody’s sees no material threat tothe ratings of Europe-based automotive suppliers, which have limited direct exposure to the consequences of the disaster:

However, we believe that they will feel ripple effects in the global supply chain as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) reduce output in Europe and North America. Although OEMs and suppliers worldwide are exploring alternatives to supply shortages caused in Japan, we believe it will take some time to realign the supply chain where necessary.

Once this has happened, we expect at least some of the lost production volumes to be recovered. We expect the disaster to negatively impact revenue and earnings, primarily in Q2 2011. In addition, halts in OEM production might impact working capital consumption. However, we estimate that the impact on the credit metrics of Europe-based automotive suppliers will only be temporary.

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