National Post; Automotive predictions for 2009

David Booth, National Post Published: Saturday, December 27, 2008

In an economic climate as topsy-turvy as this, even the bravest Nostradamus wannabes tend to get cautious. No one saw this automotive meltdown coming six months ago and you can bet anyone with even a semi-reliable view into the near-term future would be in high demand in Detroit, Tokyo and Munich.

Thus, it is probably more determination (She Who Equivocates still would call it pig-headedness) than actual prognostication that sees me peering into 2009's crystal ball. Nonetheless, I think I will be foolhardy enough to try to foretell next year's successes, even if it's only to give you readers an opportunity to agree with She Who Constantly Shakes Her Head In Frustration.

Like almost everyone, I don't expect the current low gas prices to last long. However, I do expect them to endure through next year and, considering most U. S. consumers have short memories, I suspect that sales of trucks will rebound. Actually, this one isn't much of a stretch. Lost in all this talk of a paradigm shift in the form of a new automotive consumer is the fact that Ford's F-150 and Chevy's Silverado are selling well. In fact, though their total sales are diminished, they are still the two best-selling nameplates south of the 49th parallel. Gas-guzzling SUVs, on the other hand, will not fare so well. The "need" for a cargo-hauling pickup is easily justified, but there are plenty of vehicles that can ferry the kidlets to grade school better than a Lincoln Navigator.

The first autojournalist tests of the Chevrolet Volt will be successful. Much of the skepticism surrounding General Motors' Electric-Extended Range Vehicle involves its lithium ion batteries, which, no less an automotive authority than Honda has said are not ready for prime time. Nonetheless, the Chevrolet will shock the world with the first foray into this game-changing technology. GM will, however, be sweating bullets over the previous prediction as the fuel-sipping sedan with an approximately $7,500 premium for its electronic gadgetry is a tough sell when gasoline is a buck-seventy-five per U. S. gallon. In a perfect world, The General is probably hoping for a continuation of this cheap gasoline for all of 2009 so it can squeeze out as many pickup sales as possible and then a gradual uptick in crude oil pricing as the Volt is being unveiled to the public. It's definitely wishful thinking, but it is in the realm of possibility.

Honda will once again become a significant competitor to Toyota in the hybrid market. Not as high-tech as the Prius, its new Insight will be inexpensive, a huge boon in an economic climate as clouded as this. However, thanks to the glut of cheap oil swirling about, the Insight will take some time before hitting the 200,000 units Honda predicts it can sell in a year.

As for Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn's prediction of purely electric cars becoming 10% of the global automotive market, I'm already on record as saying it's a pipe dream. Hybrids have been around for almost a decade now and, despite the headlines they generate, they still account for only about 2% of the market. There will be pomp and circumstance every time someone introduces a new electric car, but sales of the battery-only-powered automobile will remain low for quite some time.

At the other extreme, high-powered supercars are facing a difficult future. For the first time in many an economic crisis, the filthy rich are being hit as hard as we mere proles. Porsche has already noted a muting in demand and Lamborghinis are no longer flying off the lot. Nonetheless, it and Ferrari are iconic enough and have sufficient funds behind them (Lamborghini is owned by Audi, which is owned by Volkswagen, which is owned by Porsche ... you get the idea) that they will weather the storm. But all the boutique marques that have popped up in the last decade will certainly struggle as will newly independent Aston Martin. This is a shame for, if you read elsewhere in this issue, the DBS was my favourite car of the year.

And as my final prediction of the year, the comeback kid of 2009 will be Jaguar. Yes, in the midst of this terrible financial crisis, the storied English marque will resurrect itself for the umpteenth time. Fortified by a spate of new, more powerful engines and the achingly beautiful XF, Jag will find itself on much more solid footing. The divorce from ailing Ford will turn out to be a boon, especially since Ratan Tata, the Indian industrialist who rescued Jaguar as well as Land Rover, seemingly has a sustainable plan (including, I say with much hope, a lightweight sports car) for the leaping feline.

dbooth@nationalpost.com

Source;
http://www.nationalpost.com/cars/story.html?id=1118079